tv With All Due Respect Bloomberg September 10, 2015 8:00pm-8:31pm EDT
mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. with all due respect to donald trump, who said that jeb bush made ben carson look like the energizer bunny, we thought we would help with a little illustration. ♪ happy national concussion day, sports fans, which means the nfl season is getting underway. the lineup on our show -- we have biden, boehner and bernie. for the first him and his campaign, donald trump is under siege.
-- the first time in his campaign, donald trump is under siege. in the past 24 hours he has taken four body blows from ben carson, carly fiorina, and jeb bush. and bobby jindal. let's start with the first blow coming from a religious angle courtesy of dr. carson. , [bell] mr. carson: one of my favorite bible verses. "by humility and the fear of the lord are riches and honor in life." and that's a very big part of who i am. humility and the fear of the lord. i don't get that impression with him. maybe i am wrong. but i don't get that impression. trump: i never heard faith was a big thing until just recently, so i do not even know about what ben carson. all of a sudden he becomes this great religious figure.
i don't think he's a great religious figure. i saw him yesterday quoting something and he was quoting on humility, and it looks like he memorized it two minutes before he made the quote. don't tell me about ben carson. john: speaking to the washington post carson backed off his , comments and said he did not want to get into a gladiator fight with trump. probably because trump would destroy him and dragged his corpse on the back of a chariot through midtown manhattan. that was just one front of the war on trump. on the second front is carly fiorina. it is all about how "rolling stone" quoted the donald. he said "look at that face. , would anyone vote for that? can you imagine that is the face of our next president. she is a woman and i'm not supposed to say bad things, but really, folks, come on. are we serious?" turns out trump says he meant carly fiorina's personna. but that doesn't really matter at this point. here is how carly fiorina herself responded on fox. ms. fiorina: i am not going to
spend a single cycle figuring out what donald trump means but , maybe i'm getting under his skin. i am planning in the polls. john: now onto part three. a lot of this happened on twitter today. bobby jindal who fired off a series of tweets saying trump does not stand for anything except himself. that he is egomaniacal and a narcissist. all part of a speech that jindal gave at the national press club. [bell] mr. jindal: i want to say what everybody is thinking about donald trump but afraid to say. the idea of the donald trump act is great. the reality, however, is absurd. he's non-serious. he is a carnival act. he is shallow. he has no understanding of policy. he has no substance. he lacks the intellectual curiosity to even learn. issues don't mean anything.
policy and ideals are not important. he is for donald. donald trump is a narcissist and an egomaniac. we know that only a small person needs to constantly tell us how strong and powerful they are. the real danger is that ironically donald trump could destroy america's chance to be great again. the joke's on us. he is laughing all the way to the bank or the polling station. pt barnum was never more right than right now. john: donald trump replied in a statement that treated jindal like a common has been. "he did not make the debate stage and therefore i've never met them. i only respond to people who register more than 1% in the polls. i never thought he had a chance and i have been proven right." now, finally part four. moments ago, jeb bush on cnn, reacting to jindal's comment and reacting to trump's comment about carly fiorina.
jeb bush: i agree. i think that mr. trump as the front runner needs to be treated like all candidates and needs to share what his experiences are to be president, what his ideas are, and so far, at least, he has not been serious about that. i do not see how over the long haul you can insult your way to the presidency and not the nomination, either. this disparaging of women is deeply troubling. it just doesn't make any sense to me. john: so, mark, you are down there in washington dc, you have been watching all this unfold today. trump has had a lot of scraps during the campaign, but he's never been under fire like this. talk about each of these and how they might he individually or collectively different. let's start off with ben carson. with theisagree
premise he is under siege. although, each of these has a distinctive quality. on carson, right now, a lot of people in the establishment are skeptical that trump and carson will end up as the nominee. but at the key national staples, these guys are one and two. most of them are way ahead of everybody else. for once, trump is fighting with someone at his level. these issues of faith, if eventually carson and ted cruz can convince voters in iowa and south carolina that trump is not a man of faith, it will have power for them. but i don't think this round did it, particularly since carson backed off. john: when i said under siege, all i really mean is the notion that trump is fighting a multi-front war. he has not been taking this much incoming all at once. i think you're right about the carson. i also think carson, although he is an indistinct political fisher -- figure, he's someone that a lot of republicans really like. and he comes a cross, even when he was attacking trump, he comes across as kind of mild-mannered,
that we know he's capable of acerbic rhetoric. getting into a fight over religion is dangerous territory for trump. one of the places where trump seems most inauthentic is on the question of religion. moving on, let's talk about the carly fiorina thing. because i think this may be the one where he is in the most danger. mark: he is in the most danger on this one. even know with the megyn kelly thing, there have been other instances where there have been questions about trump's attitudes towards women. i think this has a lot of peril. you see leading republican voices, consultants, others speaking out about what he said. and it does make it possible that again, in iowa, this could create a huge gender gap that could be a problem down the road. john: look, this is an issue where you have got, the republican party recognizes it has a problem with female voters to begin with. if trump gets cast as a
misogynists by the women of the republican party, that will effectively foreclose the ability he would ever have to get the nomination. i'm not saying he is there yet, but between this and the megyn kelly thing, he started to get close to that territory. so, let's talk about jindal and jeb. what you think about those two fights? mark: i think the jindal thing is going to be chalked up as an attempt to save his campaign. he is doing better. it is going to be fascinating at the debate next week. a lot of times in politics, you see candidates fight in public and then they get to the debate and they are back in the green room and palling around. it is going to be fascinating to see with all these candidates, with the exception of carson. jindal will not be in the main debate. but he will be there at the same time. will they pal around with trump or will this public animus, public disapproval extend to how they treat him on the debate
stage but also off. john: i have been predicting i thought next. week is going to be a fireworks display and today makes me think it even more so. i'm curious -- mark: i'm edging in your direction on that today. thank you very much. do you think jeb is happy to have all this company in attacking trump, or do you think he preferred to be alone? mark: one of the great debates in republican politics now is, is it good or smart to be the one to take on trump? i think the bush campaign felt they had to do what they were doing. you see people like scott walker, marco rubio, john kasich staying out of this. at this point, there is strength in numbers for most of these campaigns to be a voice to rally the party against him. even though right now you could argue that trump's being big is helping people like jeb bush, helping ben carson. john: i got to think that jeb is
mark: at this point every republican presidential candidate is dealing with the donald. one of them, scott walker, has been the most trumped today. in the run-up to the second republican debate, walker's campaign is trying to convince the chattering class that he is far from dead despite his falling poll numbers and a serious unsteady walker's -- series of unsteady walker's statements that have shaken his supporters. today at eureka college in illinois, where ronald reagan gave his first big speech as a student, walker claims he is so big, so disruptive that you might call him a wreaker of havoc. governor walker: to wreak havoc on washington we need to have a leader who has been tested.
mark: so, john, this is a part of walker having a serious -- series of events before the , debate to reframe, recast and restart the campaign. do you think they have a solid come back plan? john: i think they have a comeback plan. and the notion of trying to make specific promises like repealing obamacare, tearing up the iran deal. he has got a plan. i'm not sure that it is a serious comeback plan in the sense he has fallen so far, it will be hard given all the other noise, it will be hard for him to claw himself back to the position he was in a few months ago. mark: scott walker, like hillary clinton, has a bigger problem with elites than he does with voters to get the problem with voters he has dropped in a lot of polls, including in iowa. make no mistake, he has a lot of problems with voters, he has
dropped in the polls. he still has a chance to come back but today's performance unfortunately for him didn't do much to convince elites, donors, etc., he has to rest that up. the debate is massively important for him. john: everybody has a lot at stake in this debate next week. i cannot think of a person who has more at stake than scott walker. i cannot imagine he is not going to join the chorus now and try to take on donald trump directly on that stage when we get out there to california next wednesday. all right. as joe biden keeps us waiting like the world's most stubborn jack-in-the-box, he arrives in gotham city. a new poll shows hillary clinton with a lower number than bernie sanders in iowa. the beats numbers are also pretty good even though he's not formally in the race. joe biden is here palling around with all kinds of liberals.
is this just a coincidence, or is the vice president trying to stir the pot? mark: he has been moving around a lot of places. doing everything he can to keep the options open. the personal is going to trump any of these political considerations, but make no mistake, he is formidable because he has vast national political experience. coming into new york, doing colbert, hanging out with the governor of new york state this , guy can do a lot of stuff and he can do it with a better touch then hillary clinton. john: i think there is something about, he has been stirring the pot and a whole bunch of ways. but there is something about the vividness of the incursion on her home turf. over at the center standing up , there with cuomo. all these people. this is seen as hillary clinton's home and base. for him to be traipsing around at this moment when he is supposed to be deciding about whether he will take her on, it seems like political theater at a high level to me. mark: the more he plays on a major league stage, the more he
is that guy the party would say if hillary clinton falters over e-mails, he is the person the party would say we have a major league guy. we can plug him in. he might be flawed in some ways in the general election, but we can plug him in. nothing more majorly than coming to gotham city, colbert, all of these platforms that, again, not everybody in the world can do. joe biden can do them. john: would be funny if bill de blasio endorsed him. that would be great. we will be back with two of the smartest people in the whole wide political world after this. ♪
we will talk about some polls. start on the republican side. tell us about what this big poll tells us. ann: it tells us trump is marching forward. every time the pundits say -- it shows him winning by a bigger margin. he's up, carson is up, bush is down. and the rest of the field is kind of holding its own. mark: between trump and carson, number one and number two, trump leads across the board with every demographic and type of group, but what can you say about where carson is closer to trump on gender or age education? is there an area where carson is competing more than trump? ann: women used to be carson's core. overcome --one that over trump. trump now has an 11 point lead among women. so, he's making up that distance.
trump is doing better with college graduates than he used to. those numbers have increased. carson continues to be the core republican, the core conservative, but he does not win. john: if you are donald trump campaign and looking at this numbers and trying to translate that into tactical imperatives on the ground in iowa, what you thinking right now? sasha: i wonder whether you need a ground game. the assumption is that trump needs to spend the fall developing a traditional looking campaign with the field organization that will identify his voters and mobilize them on caucus day. the nature of his coalition that is diffuse and varied, makes it difficult to use the statistical tools the campaigns want to predict their supporters. and that is what you want, which doors to knock on. carson's the statistical as abuse of a carson supporter are
-- attributes of a carson supporter are looking far easier to define than trump's. that will be a problem. as the months go on, there will be a huge risk for trump is people who look like supported in september were treated by trump's campaign on caucus day. there will probably be a lot of validity. the the question for donald trump is do we even want to bother with the ground game. or is this national media persuasion strategy enough to carry him through? mark: one more thing about this national poll. we have three big candidates, trump and carson, bernie sanders who are trying to bring a lot of new people into the race. polling will be a challenge -- for you and others to say are we , polling the right people? what does this poll say about enthusiasm for trump and enthusiasm for carson? ann: enthusiasm for republicans generally is waxing, enthusiasm for democrats general is waning. if you look candidate by candidate, trump has a very high number saying that they feel enthusiastic if he were to become the nominee.
this is among everybody. all republicans and have as many saying they would be upset if he got it. carson, his numbers are more tilted toward the positive. jeb bush is not somebody we have been talking about. he has more people saying they would be angry if he turned out to be the nominee than saying that they would be enthusiastic about. mark: i think they are not angry but frowny faced. ann: upset. john: sad face. you are an iowa expert. there is a quinnipiac poll focusing on iowa. what do you see in those numbers? ann: they included joe biden and then they take him out. when he has included he is sapping the strength all of that out of hillary clinton and bernie sanders has a one point lead. take him out of the equation, and she is holding onto a three-point lead. his being in the mix right now is bothering hillary clinton a little bit more than bernie sanders. mark: in this poll and in the
iowa poll, sanders is gaining. what can you tells about why sanders has moved into a tie with clinton in this poll? ann: he wins two out of three people under age 35. those are likely to include a lot of people who have never caucused before. he is enlarging the base. that is helping him there. the other thing you see is people right now are not focused on who can win in the general election. they are focused on who aligns with my values? that is what they are paying attention to. that's why bernie sanders is doing better. if it were the reverse, people were caring about who wins, hillary clinton might be polling stronger. mark: statistical pie with sanders and clinton in iowa. talk about each one of those separately. a more disturbing picture for hillary clinton much more optimistic for bernie sanders.
given where they thought they would be at this again, in terms point. of if you are in iowa right now, what does hillary clinton have to focus on and what does bernie sanders have to focus on? sasha: the burden is more on sanders. it is a challenge for campaigns if you have people that have never caucused before. both campaigns are working off a list that they acquired from the state party. that is your core source of information. that is the starting point for all of your field programs. so, if you are building your support and showing up in polls with in frequent voters, you're starting with a huge informational disadvantage. the other challenge we see for sanders is unlike and the republican caucus where it's one vote, one man, one person, one vote across the state, democrats see their delegates allocated by precinct. as we might imagine sanders does, if you have support that is concentrated in college towns and parts of cities where white liberals are, there is not a
huge advantage of running up the score in those places. he could have ordered percent of the vote, but he could find that is disadvantageous geographically. something the obama campaign did in 2008, they got college kids to vote where they left. -- lived. there is only so much you can do if you find your supporters are in iowa city or aimes. that will be a challenge for sanders as he tries to diversify his base of support. mark: and a lot of the candidates in iowa were down the polls on the public and side and are saying, look at our favorability. the rubio campaign or the walker campaign. is that something they can cling to and say, people like us in iowa? ann: we know that anything can happen.
if you do not have a good likability factor, you're going to be in trouble. the fact that there are several candidates with very high likability factors, they have to figure out how to parlay into actual votes. why choose this person that you are not is ginned up about even though you like them. there is a difference between who do you date and who do you marry. right now there are a lot of people you would date. [laughter] john: certainly true. in another episode we will have sasha discuss that. he knows more about that than anyone. thanks for being here. we will be right back. ♪
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